Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
